2009-07-10: Primary, intermediate and short-term trends
The most important goal of technical analysis is to identify a trend at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed.
A trend is a time measurement of the direction in price levels covering different time spans. There are many trends, but the three that are most widely followed are primary, intermediate, and short term.
These are the trends we see everyday in our study of technical analysis. The bull and bear markets are also known as primary markets, and generally last from one to three years. This is a reflection of players' attitude toward relating fundamentals in the business cycle. Since building up generally takes longer time than tearing down, bull markets generally lasts longer than bear markets.

By looking at a price chart, one notices that prices do not move in a straight line. A primary upswing is broken up by several reactions along the way. These countercyclical trends within the boundaries of a primary bull market are known as intermediate price movements. They last anywhere from six weeks to nine months, and sometimes even longer. It is essential to have an idea of the direction and maturity of the primary trend, but an analysis of intermediate trends is also useful for improved success in trading, as well as for determining when the primary movement may have run its course.

Short-term trends typically last from two to four weeks, sometimes shorter and sometimes longer. They interrupt the path of the intermediate cycle, just as the intermediate-term trend interrupts primary price movements. They are usually influenced by random news events and are more difficult to identify than their intermediate or primary counterparts.

It is clear that the price level of any market is influenced simultaneously by several different trends, and it is important to understand which type is being monitored.

The primary trend consists of several intermediate cycles, but the secular, or very long-term trend, is constructed from a number of primary trends. This long wave extends over a substantially greater period, usually lasting over ten years, and often as long as twenty-five years. It is helpful to understand the direction of the secular trend. Just as the primary trend influences the scale of the intermediate-term rally relative to the countercyclical reaction, so the secular trend influences the scale and duration of a primary trend rally or reaction.

Technical analysis is the art of identifying a trend reversal based on the weight of the objective element of technical analysis. It consists of a series of methodically derived indicators or techniques that increase the opportunity of successfully trend identification. The art consists of combining these indicators into an overall picture and recognizing when that picture resembles a market peak or through.